Senate District 4
Seacoast and Strafford · currently held by D (David Watters, running)
Forecast
100%
chance David Watters (D) wins
- Democrat
- David Watters
- Republican
- Shawn Mickelonis
- Rating
- Safe D
- Expected margin
- D+25.8 (90% range D+13.5 to D+38.1)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.1%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat is the 13th most Democratic, deciding control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | +19.1 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+22.0 |
| + Incumbency advantage | +3.0 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +0.7 |
| Final expected margin | D+25.8 |
No public poll of this district exists; the forecast is fundamentals only. District-level error SD 6.0 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.5 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+21.5 | D+2.8 | +18.7 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | D+9.3 | R+9.5 | +18.9 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+28.7 | D+9.3 | +19.3 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | D+2.9 | R+15.8 | +18.7 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | D+23.7 | D+7.4 | +16.3 | 0.15 |
Last Senate result (2024): D+21.0 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-3.0) → lean +20.6, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district (current lines)
2024 — party margin D+21.0
| D David H. Watters (i) | 19,666 | ✓ |
| R Shawn Mickelonis | 12,847 |
2022 — party margin D+26.6
| D David H. Watters (i) | 15,879 | ✓ |
| R Seamus Casey | 9,207 |