House District Hillsborough 37 (floterial)
Nashua and the Massachusetts border · 1 seat · Amherst, Milford · floterial: these towns also elect representatives in their base districts
Forecast
0.9 expected Democratic seat of 1
- Held today
- 1 D, 0 R
- On the ballot
- 1 Democrat, 1 Republican, 1 other for 1 seat
- District party margin
- D+6.4 (90% range R+4.6 to D+17.3)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 0%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 14%
- Rating (seat share)
- Likely D
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Megan Murray (incumbent) | D | 86% |
| Michael Thornton | R | 14% |
| Daryl D'Angelo | Classic Liberal Party | 0% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | +3.5 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | D+6.4 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 1 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by towns)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+10.6 | D+2.8 | +7.8 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+7.1 | R+9.5 | +2.5 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+14.5 | D+9.3 | +5.1 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+12.4 | R+15.8 | +3.4 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | D+5.9 | D+7.4 | -1.4 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin D+0.8 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-2.5) → lean +0.9, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 1, R 0 of 1 · party margin D+0.8
| D Megan A. Murray (i) | 8,424 | ✓ |
| R Pamela D. Coughlin | 8,290 |
2022 — D 1, R 0 of 1 · party margin D+7.8
| D Murray (i) | 7,162 | ✓ |
| R Facques | 6,132 |