House District Strafford 3
Lakes Region · 1 seat · Middleton, New Durham
Forecast
0.0 expected Democratic seat of 1
- Held today
- 0 D, 1 R
- On the ballot
- 1 Democrat, 1 Republican for 1 seat
- District party margin
- R+26.6 (90% range R+37.5 to R+15.7)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 0%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Safe R
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Susan DeRoy (incumbent) | R | 100% |
| Linda Adamo | D | 0% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -29.5 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | R+26.6 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 1 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by towns)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+26.1 | D+2.8 | -29.0 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+35.3 | R+9.5 | -25.8 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+22.0 | D+9.3 | -31.4 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+44.6 | R+15.8 | -28.8 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | R+22.6 | D+7.4 | -30.0 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin R+33.0 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-0.0) → lean -30.3, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 0, R 1 of 1 · party margin R+33.0
| R Susan DeRoy | 1,954 | ✓ |
| D Ellen Phillips | 985 |
2022 — D 0, R 1 of 1 · party margin R+28.7
| R Bickford | 1,469 | ✓ |
| D Wessel | 814 |