House District Belknap 8 (floterial)
Lakes Region · 2 seats · Belmont, Sanbornton, Tilton · floterial: these towns also elect representatives in their base districts
Forecast
0.0 expected Democratic seats of 2
- Held today
- 0 D, 2 R
- On the ballot
- 2 Democrats, 2 Republicans for 2 seats
- District party margin
- R+17.6 (90% range R+28.4 to R+6.6)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 3%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Safe R
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Lisa Freeman (incumbent) | R | 99% |
| Cameron Thompson | R | 98% |
| Donald Giguere | D | 2% |
| Don House | D | 2% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -20.5 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | R+17.6 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 2 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by towns)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+18.5 | D+2.8 | -21.3 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+28.5 | R+9.5 | -18.9 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+12.4 | D+9.3 | -21.7 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+39.3 | R+15.8 | -23.5 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | R+14.1 | D+7.4 | -21.4 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin R+22.6 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+1.2) → lean -18.7, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 0, R 2 of 2 · party margin R+22.6
| R Douglas Trottier (i) | 4,569 | ✓ |
| R Lisa M. Freeman | 4,445 | ✓ |
| D Sheryl Anderson | 3,014 | |
| D Don House | 2,680 |
2022 — D 0, R 2 of 2 · party margin R+21.3
| R Trottier (i) | 3,542 | ✓ |
| R McCarter | 3,068 | ✓ |
| D House | 2,426 | |
| D Condodeme-traky | 1,860 |