House District Grafton 11
Upper Valley · 1 seat · Alexandria, Grafton, Groton, Hebron
Forecast
0.0 expected Democratic seat of 1
- Held today
- 0 D, 1 R
- On the ballot
- 1 Democrat, 1 Republican for 1 seat
- District party margin
- R+16.7 (90% range R+27.7 to R+5.5)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 2%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Safe R
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Abuhav | R | 98% |
| Roger Larochelle Jr. | D | 2% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -19.6 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | R+16.6 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.1 pts). The top 1 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by towns)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+17.3 | D+2.8 | -20.1 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+26.7 | R+9.5 | -17.2 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+9.8 | D+9.3 | -19.2 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+35.3 | R+15.8 | -19.6 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | R+13.8 | D+7.4 | -21.1 | 0.15 |
Last House result not used as a lean (uncontested or lopsided).
Past results in this district
2024 — D 0, R 1 of 1 · uncontested
| R Lex Berezhny (i) | 1,826 | ✓ |
2022 — D 0, R 1 of 1 · party margin R+16.6
| R Berezhny (i) | 1,264 | ✓ |
| D Mulholland | 905 |