House District Rockingham 18

Forecast

Held today

0 D, 2 R

On the ballot

2 Democrats, 2 Republicans for 2 seats

District party margin

R+13.8 (90% range R+24.8 to R+2.8)

Chance Democrats gain seats here

6%

Chance Democrats lose seats here

0%

Rating (seat share)

Safe R

Seat split distribution

Candidates

Candidate	Party	Win chance
Debra DeSimone (incumbent)	R	97%
Jay Markell (incumbent)	R	97%
Chris Duerr	D	3%
Beth Cacciotti	D	3%

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+2.9
+ District partisan lean	-16.7
= Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate)	R+13.7

Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 2 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.

Partisan lean (exact by town)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	R+15.8	D+2.8	-18.7	0.4
2024 Governor	R+31.0	R+9.5	-21.4	0.15
2022 U.S. Senate	R+11.5	D+9.3	-20.8	0.2
2022 Governor	R+35.8	R+15.8	-20.0	0.1
2020 President	R+10.8	D+7.4	-18.2	0.15

Last House result (2024): party margin R+13.8 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+1.2) → lean -9.9, blended at 30%.

Past results in this district

2024 — D 0, R 2 of 2 · party margin R+13.8

R Debra L. DeSimone (i)	2,905	✓
R Jay Markell	2,540	✓
D Michael Boucher	2,064

2022 — D 0, R 2 of 2 · party margin R+18.6

R DeSimone (i)	2,310	✓
R Quaratiello	2,157	✓
D Delfino	1,620
D Duerr	1,443