House District Carroll 3

Forecast

Held today

0 D, 2 R

On the ballot

2 Democrats, 2 Republicans for 2 seats

District party margin

R+4.4 (90% range R+15.4 to D+6.6)

Chance Democrats gain seats here

35%

Chance Democrats lose seats here

0%

Rating (seat share)

Lean R

Seat split distribution

Candidates

Candidate	Party	Win chance
Richard Brown (incumbent)	R	78%
Karel Crawford (incumbent)	R	78%
Bryan Randolph	D	22%
Todd Milliken	D	22%

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+2.9
+ District partisan lean	-7.4
= Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate)	R+4.4

Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 2 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.

Partisan lean (exact by towns)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	R+5.1	D+2.8	-7.9	0.4
2024 Governor	R+19.2	R+9.5	-9.7	0.15
2022 U.S. Senate	R+1.5	D+9.3	-10.8	0.2
2022 Governor	R+28.6	R+15.8	-12.9	0.1
2020 President	R+2.3	D+7.4	-9.7	0.15

Last House result (2024): party margin R+6.1 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+1.2) → lean -2.2, blended at 30%.

Past results in this district

2024 — D 0, R 2 of 2 · party margin R+6.1

R Karel A. Crawford (i)	3,771	✓
R Joseph Hamblen	3,335	✓
D Kim Johnson	3,170
D Sandra Ringelstein	3,115

2022 — D 0, R 2 of 2 · party margin R+10.2

R Crawford (i)	3,000	✓
R Brown	2,947	✓
D Watson	2,552
D Todd	2,291