House District Rockingham 31 (floterial)
Greater Manchester · 2 seats · Auburn, Candia, Chester, Deerfield · floterial: these towns also elect representatives in their base districts
Forecast
0.0 expected Democratic seats of 2
- Held today
- 0 D, 2 R
- On the ballot
- 2 Democrats, 2 Republicans for 2 seats
- District party margin
- R+19.4 (90% range R+30.4 to R+8.4)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 1%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Safe R
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Jess Edwards (incumbent) | R | 99% |
| Terry Roy (incumbent) | R | 99% |
| Peter Boudreau | D | 1% |
| Yaz Safarzadeh | D | 1% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -22.4 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | R+19.5 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 2 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by towns)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+19.1 | D+2.8 | -21.9 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+32.6 | R+9.5 | -23.1 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+14.0 | D+9.3 | -23.3 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+39.4 | R+15.8 | -23.6 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | R+16.8 | D+7.4 | -24.2 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin R+26.4 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+2.5) → lean -21.2, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 0, R 2 of 2 · party margin R+26.4
| R Jess Edwards (i) | 8,166 | ✓ |
| R Terry Roy (i) | 7,397 | ✓ |
| D Charlotte Lister | 4,641 | |
| D Dave DePuy | 4,425 |
2022 — D 0, R 2 of 2 · party margin R+22.1
| R Edwards (i) | 6,087 | ✓ |
| R Roy (i) | 5,899 | ✓ |
| D Lister | 3,884 | |
| D Thomas | 3,759 |