House District Merrimack 9

Forecast

Held today

4 D, 0 R

On the ballot

4 Democrats, 2 Republicans for 4 seats

District party margin

D+19.8 (90% range D+8.8 to D+30.6)

Chance Democrats gain seats here

0%

Chance Democrats lose seats here

2%

Rating (seat share)

Safe D

Seat split distribution

Candidates

Candidate	Party	Win chance
Muriel Hall (incumbent)	D	100%
Eleana Colby (incumbent)	D	100%
James Newsom (incumbent)	D	100%
David Luneau (incumbent)	D	100%
John Martin	R	1%
Matthew Poulin	R	1%

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+2.9
+ District partisan lean	+16.9
= Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate)	D+19.8

Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 4 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.

Partisan lean (exact by towns)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	D+21.0	D+2.8	+18.2	0.4
2024 Governor	D+4.1	R+9.5	+13.7	0.15
2022 U.S. Senate	D+25.1	D+9.3	+15.8	0.2
2022 Governor	R+1.2	R+15.8	+14.5	0.1
2020 President	D+25.0	D+7.4	+17.6	0.15

Last House result (2024): party margin D+16.1 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-1.2) → lean +17.5, blended at 30%.

Past results in this district

2024 — D 4, R 0 of 4 · party margin D+16.1

D Muriel Hall (i)	5,261	✓
D Eleana Marie Colby	5,022	✓
D David Luneau (i)	4,944	✓
D James Newsom	4,884	✓
R Matthew Poulin	3,979
R David Germain	3,667
R John F. Martin	3,515
R Darlene Gildersleeve	3,363

2022 — D 4, R 0 of 4 · party margin D+21.4

D Hall	4,647	✓
D Brennan	4,526	✓
D Luneau (i)	4,502	✓
D Myler (i)	4,377	✓
R Lins	3,024
R Martin	2,917
R Richardson	2,913
R Gildersleeve	2,832