House District Hillsborough 16
Greater Manchester · 2 seats · Manchester Ward 6
Forecast
1.2 expected Democratic seats of 2
- Held today
- 1 D, 1 R
- On the ballot
- 2 Democrats, 2 Republicans for 2 seats
- District party margin
- D+1.7 (90% range R+9.2 to D+12.5)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 39%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 23%
- Rating (seat share)
- Tilt D
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Baroody | D | 58% |
| Maxine Mosley | D | 58% |
| David Smith | R | 42% |
| Michael Tkacz | R | 42% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -1.2 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | D+1.7 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 2 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+0.5 | D+2.8 | -3.3 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+14.7 | R+9.5 | -5.2 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+6.1 | D+9.3 | -3.3 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+26.6 | R+15.8 | -10.8 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | D+3.5 | D+7.4 | -3.9 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin D+1.2 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+2.5) → lean +6.4, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 1, R 1 of 2 · party margin D+1.2
| R Larry G. Gagne (i) | 2,530 | ✓ |
| D Dan Bergeron | 2,520 | ✓ |
| R William Infantine (i) | 2,387 |
2022 — D 0, R 2 of 2 · party margin R+3.7
| R Infantine (i) | 5,675 | ✓ |
| R Gagne (i) | 5,442 | ✓ |
| D Mosley | 5,394 | |
| D Hillhouse | 4,930 |