House District Hillsborough 9
Nashua and the Massachusetts border · 3 seats · Nashua Ward 5
Forecast
2.8 expected Democratic seats of 3
- Held today
- 3 D, 0 R
- On the ballot
- 3 Democrats, 1 Republican for 3 seats
- District party margin
- D+7.5 (90% range R+3.5 to D+18.6)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 0%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 23%
- Rating (seat share)
- Likely D
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Santosh Salvi (incumbent) | D | 95% |
| Sanjeev K. Manohar (incumbent) | D | 95% |
| Rich Green | D | 87% |
| Joseph Cole | R | 23% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | +4.7 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | D+7.6 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.1 pts). The top 3 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+8.6 | D+2.8 | +5.8 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+8.6 | R+9.5 | +1.0 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+15.4 | D+9.3 | +6.1 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+12.3 | R+15.8 | +3.4 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | D+11.6 | D+7.4 | +4.2 | 0.15 |
Last House result not used as a lean (uncontested or lopsided).
Past results in this district
2024 — D 3, R 0 of 3 · uncontested
| D William Dolan (i) | 3,201 | ✓ |
| D Santosh Salvi | 3,106 | ✓ |
| D Sanjeev K. Manohar | 2,940 | ✓ |
2022 — D 3, R 0 of 3 · party margin D+7.7
| D Nutting-Wong (i) | 4,869 | ✓ |
| D Dolan | 4,627 | ✓ |
| D Pedersen (i) | 4,578 | ✓ |
| R Johnson | 4,299 | |
| R Schmidt | 3,964 | |
| R Lothrop | 3,803 |