House District Cheshire 10
Monadnock · 2 seats · Richmond, Swanzey
Forecast
0.8 expected Democratic seats of 2
- Held today
- 1 D, 1 R
- On the ballot
- 2 Democrats, 2 Republicans for 2 seats
- District party margin
- R+1.0 (90% range R+11.9 to D+10.0)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 20%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 40%
- Rating (seat share)
- Tilt R
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Sly Karasinski (incumbent) | R | 69% |
| Michael York | R | 51% |
| Alan Gross | D | 40% |
| Steve Russell | D | 40% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -3.9 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | R+1.0 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 2 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by towns)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+4.5 | D+2.8 | -7.3 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+13.3 | R+9.5 | -3.8 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+5.4 | D+9.3 | -3.9 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+16.1 | R+15.8 | -0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | D+2.8 | D+7.4 | -4.6 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin R+2.8 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-1.2) → lean -1.4, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 1, R 1 of 2 · party margin R+2.8
| D Barry Faulkner (i) | 2,250 | ✓ |
| R Sly Karasinski | 2,220 | ✓ |
| R Daniel LeClair | 2,187 | |
| D Alan Gross | 1,921 |
2022 — D 2, R 0 of 2 · party margin D+6.0
| D Tatro | 1,772 | ✓ |
| D Faulkner (i) | 1,658 | ✓ |
| R LeClair | 1,563 | |
| R York | 1,482 |