House District Merrimack 13

Forecast

Held today

0 D, 2 R

On the ballot

0 Democrats, 2 Republicans, 2 other for 2 seats — everyone on the ballot wins

District party margin

R+18.9 (90% range R+29.7 to R+8.0)

Chance Democrats gain seats here

0%

Chance Democrats lose seats here

0%

Rating (seat share)

Safe R

Seat split distribution

Candidates

Candidate	Party	Win chance
Clayton Wood (incumbent)	R	100%
Cyril Aures (incumbent)	R	100%
Becky Berk	Independent	0%
Paul Twomey	Independent	0%

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+2.9
+ District partisan lean	-21.8
= Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate)	R+18.9

Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 2 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.

Partisan lean (exact by towns)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	R+22.6	D+2.8	-25.4	0.4
2024 Governor	R+28.2	R+9.5	-18.6	0.15
2022 U.S. Senate	R+12.7	D+9.3	-22.1	0.2
2022 Governor	R+34.2	R+15.8	-18.4	0.1
2020 President	R+15.6	D+7.4	-23.0	0.15

Last House result (2024): party margin R+25.1 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+2.5) → lean -19.9, blended at 30%.

Past results in this district

2024 — D 0, R 2 of 2 · party margin R+25.1

R Clayton Wood (i)	2,145	✓
R Cyril Aures (i)	1,901	✓
D Sally Kelly	1,509
D Dan Schroth	915
I James C. Allard	803

2022 — D 0, R 2 of 2 · party margin R+15.4

R Wood	1,582	✓
R Aures	1,391	✓
D Kelly	1,239
D Schroth	942