House District Hillsborough 22

Forecast

Held today

2 D, 0 R

On the ballot

2 Democrats, 2 Republicans for 2 seats

District party margin

D+9.2 (90% range R+1.6 to D+20.0)

Chance Democrats gain seats here

0%

Chance Democrats lose seats here

21%

Rating (seat share)

Likely D

Seat split distribution

Candidates

Candidate	Party	Win chance
Nicole Leapley (incumbent)	D	92%
Greg Erskine	D	84%
Brittany LeClear-Ping	R	12%
Max Abramson	R	12%

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+2.9
+ District partisan lean	+6.3
= Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate)	D+9.2

Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 2 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.

Partisan lean (exact by town)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	D+5.3	D+2.8	+2.5	0.4
2024 Governor	R+3.7	R+9.5	+5.9	0.15
2022 U.S. Senate	D+19.9	D+9.3	+10.5	0.2
2022 Governor	R+9.1	R+15.8	+6.6	0.1
2020 President	D+18.8	D+7.4	+11.5	0.15

Last House result (2024): party margin D+6.1 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-2.5) → lean +6.2, blended at 30%.

Past results in this district

2024 — D 2, R 0 of 2 · party margin D+6.1

D Patricia Cornell (i)	1,720	✓
D Nicole Leapley (i)	1,614	✓
R Bill Gabler	1,550
R Karl Beisel	1,401

2022 — D 2, R 0 of 2 · party margin D+13.0

D Cornell (i)	1,225	✓
D Leapley	1,196	✓
R Gericke	966
R Ping	897