Senate District 10
Monadnock · currently held by D (Donovan Fenton, running) · uncontested
Forecast
100%
chance Donovan Fenton (D) wins
- Democrat
- Donovan Fenton
- Republican
- — (no candidate)
- Rating
- Safe D
- Expected margin
- D+31.1 (90% range D+18.8 to D+43.3)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.5%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat is the 13th most Democratic, deciding control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | +24.7 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+27.6 |
| + Incumbency advantage | +3.0 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +0.6 |
| Final expected margin | D+31.2 |
No public poll of this district exists; the forecast is fundamentals only. District-level error SD 6.0 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.5 pts. Uncontested: probability fixed at 99.5% for the sole major-party candidate.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+24.7 | D+2.8 | +21.9 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | D+15.4 | R+9.5 | +25.0 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+34.3 | D+9.3 | +25.0 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | D+15.1 | R+15.8 | +30.9 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | D+31.1 | D+7.4 | +23.7 | 0.15 |
Last Senate result (2024): D+26.3 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-3.0) → lean +25.9, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district (current lines)
2024 — party margin D+26.3
| D Donovan Fenton (i) | 20,841 | ✓ |
| R Rick Merkt | 12,166 |
2022 — party margin D+32.3
| D Donovan Fenton | 17,305 | ✓ |
| R Sly Karasinski | 8,860 |