House District Strafford 19 (floterial)
Seacoast and Strafford · 3 seats · Rochester Ward 1, Rochester Ward 2, Rochester Ward 3, Rochester Ward 4, Rochester Ward 6 · floterial: these towns also elect representatives in their base districts
Forecast
1.2 expected Democratic seats of 3
- Held today
- 1 D, 2 R
- On the ballot
- 3 Democrats, 3 Republicans for 3 seats
- District party margin
- R+1.2 (90% range R+12.0 to D+9.8)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 39%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 29%
- Rating (seat share)
- Tilt R
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Farrington (incumbent) | R | 71% |
| Jonathan Verbicky | R | 53% |
| James Higginbottom | R | 52% |
| Justin McIsaac | D | 42% |
| Jonathan King | D | 41% |
| Nick Paul | D | 41% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -4.1 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | R+1.2 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 3 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by towns)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+2.5 | D+2.8 | -5.3 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+10.7 | R+9.5 | -1.1 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+2.0 | D+9.3 | -7.3 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+23.3 | R+15.8 | -7.6 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | R+0.4 | D+7.4 | -7.8 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin R+3.0 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-0.0) → lean -0.3, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 1, R 2 of 3 · party margin R+3.0
| R David Walker | 6,641 | ✓ |
| R Kelley Potenza (i) | 6,428 | ✓ |
| D John Larochelle | 6,127 | ✓ |
| D Daniel Fitzpatrick (i) | 6,040 | |
| R Jenny O. Wilson | 5,970 | |
| D Melena Lugo | 5,781 |
2022 — D 1, R 2 of 3 · party margin R+2.4
| R Connor | 4,791 | ✓ |
| D Fitzpatrick | 4,760 | ✓ |
| R Potenza | 4,701 | ✓ |
| R Groen (i) | 4,639 | |
| D Herman | 4,402 | |
| D Minihan | 4,298 |