House District Rockingham 39 (floterial)
Seacoast and Strafford · 1 seat · Portsmouth Ward 2, Portsmouth Ward 3, Portsmouth Ward 4 · floterial: these towns also elect representatives in their base districts
Forecast
1.0 expected Democratic seat of 1
- Held today
- 1 D, 0 R
- On the ballot
- 1 Democrat, 1 Republican for 1 seat
- District party margin
- D+38.4 (90% range D+27.5 to D+49.5)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 0%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Safe D
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Barbara Ward | D | 100% |
| Sue Polidura | R | 0% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | +35.5 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | D+38.4 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.1 pts). The top 1 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by towns)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+38.0 | D+2.8 | +35.2 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | D+23.2 | R+9.5 | +32.7 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+45.8 | D+9.3 | +36.4 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | D+20.1 | R+15.8 | +35.8 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | D+45.2 | D+7.4 | +37.8 | 0.15 |
Last House result not used as a lean (uncontested or lopsided).
Past results in this district
2024 — D 1, R 0 of 1 · uncontested
| D Ned Raynolds (i) | 6,128 | ✓ |
2022 — D 1, R 0 of 1 · party margin D+39.3
| D Raynolds | 4,660 | ✓ |
| R Polidura | 2,030 |