House District Cheshire 18 (floterial)
Monadnock · 2 seats · Dublin, Jaffrey, Rindge · floterial: these towns also elect representatives in their base districts
Forecast
0.3 expected Democratic seats of 2
- Held today
- 0 D, 2 R
- On the ballot
- 2 Democrats, 2 Republicans for 2 seats
- District party margin
- R+6.5 (90% range R+17.3 to D+4.5)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 26%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Likely R
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Jim Qualey (incumbent) | R | 85% |
| Rita Mattson (incumbent) | R | 85% |
| Allen Davis | D | 15% |
| Rory Lovett Sherman | D | 15% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -9.4 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | R+6.5 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 2 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by towns)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+10.1 | D+2.8 | -12.9 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+18.3 | R+9.5 | -8.7 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+1.4 | D+9.3 | -10.8 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+19.3 | R+15.8 | -3.5 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | R+3.9 | D+7.4 | -11.3 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin R+10.3 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+1.2) → lean -6.4, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 0, R 2 of 2 · party margin R+10.3
| R Rita Mattson | 4,061 | ✓ |
| R Jim Qualey (i) | 3,903 | ✓ |
| D Hannah Bissex | 3,420 | |
| D Tom Hsu | 3,056 |
2022 — D 0, R 2 of 2 · party margin R+3.6
| R Qualey (i) | 2,927 | ✓ |
| R Santonastaso (i) | 2,917 | ✓ |
| D McCarthy | 2,811 | |
| D Dickler | 2,621 |