House District Hillsborough 36

Forecast

Held today

0 D, 2 R

On the ballot

2 Democrats, 2 Republicans for 2 seats

District party margin

R+3.8 (90% range R+14.7 to D+7.1)

Chance Democrats gain seats here

38%

Chance Democrats lose seats here

0%

Rating (seat share)

Lean R

Seat split distribution

Candidates

Candidate	Party	Win chance
John W. Suiter (incumbent)	R	77%
Diane Pauer (incumbent)	R	76%
Mike Pellerito	D	24%
Stephen Spratt	D	23%

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+2.9
+ District partisan lean	-6.7
= Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate)	R+3.8

Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 2 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.

Partisan lean (exact by towns)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	R+3.6	D+2.8	-6.4	0.4
2024 Governor	R+19.5	R+9.5	-9.9	0.15
2022 U.S. Senate	D+0.3	D+9.3	-9.0	0.2
2022 Governor	R+23.8	R+15.8	-8.1	0.1
2020 President	D+1.3	D+7.4	-6.1	0.15

Last House result (2024): party margin R+8.6 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+1.2) → lean -4.7, blended at 30%.

Past results in this district

2024 — D 0, R 2 of 2 · party margin R+8.6

R Diane Pauer (i)	2,856	✓
R John W. Suiter	2,690	✓
D Peter A. Cook	2,409
D Carol Schreck	2,257

2022 — D 0, R 2 of 2 · party margin R+6.3

R Pauer (i)	2,210	✓
R Lewicke (i)	2,141	✓
D Denehy	1,938
D Rater	1,895