House District Rockingham 29
Seacoast and Strafford · 4 seats · Hampton
Forecast
2.9 expected Democratic seats of 4
- Held today
- 3 D, 1 R
- On the ballot
- 4 Democrats, 4 Republicans for 4 seats
- District party margin
- D+5.9 (90% range R+5.1 to D+16.7)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 39%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 33%
- Rating (seat share)
- Lean D
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Molly McCoy St. Jeanne | D | 71% |
| Nathan Riggs | D | 71% |
| Ward Galanis | D | 71% |
| Rebecca LaPierre | D | 71% |
| Nicholas Bridle (incumbent) | R | 42% |
| Richard Wickson Jr. | R | 24% |
| Bruce Theriault | R | 24% |
| Ken Sheffert | R | 24% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | +2.9 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | D+5.8 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 4 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+6.5 | D+2.8 | +3.7 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+9.1 | R+9.5 | +0.4 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+8.6 | D+9.3 | -0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+13.4 | R+15.8 | +2.3 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | D+8.3 | D+7.4 | +0.9 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin D+4.3 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-1.2) → lean +5.7, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 3, R 1 of 4 · party margin D+4.3
| D Chris Muns (i) | 5,067 | ✓ |
| D Mike Edgar (i) | 4,969 | ✓ |
| R Nicholas D. Bridle | 4,823 | ✓ |
| D Erica de Vries | 4,802 | ✓ |
| D Alan S. Blair | 4,520 | |
| R Bruce Theriault | 4,355 | |
| R David Hagen | 4,351 | |
| R Ken Sheffert | 4,239 |
2022 — D 3, R 1 of 4 · party margin D+5.1
| D Muns | 4,512 | ✓ |
| D Edgar (i) | 4,480 | ✓ |
| D O'Neil | 4,463 | ✓ |
| R Emerick (i) | 4,282 | ✓ |
| D Saunders | 4,220 | |
| R Sheffert | 3,964 | |
| R Theriault | 3,881 | |
| R Jackson | 3,842 |