House District Rockingham 11

Forecast

Held today

3 D, 0 R, 1 vacant

On the ballot

4 Democrats, 1 Republican for 4 seats

District party margin

D+32.5 (90% range D+21.5 to D+43.4)

Chance Democrats gain seats here

100%

Chance Democrats lose seats here

0%

Rating (seat share)

Safe D

Seat split distribution

Candidates

Candidate	Party	Win chance
Julie Gilman (incumbent)	D	100%
Mark Paige (incumbent)	D	100%
Steven Jones	D	100%
Enna Grazier	D	100%
Robert Goeman	R	0%

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+2.9
+ District partisan lean	+29.6
= Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate)	D+32.5

Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 4 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.

Partisan lean (exact by town)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	D+33.4	D+2.8	+30.6	0.4
2024 Governor	D+18.6	R+9.5	+28.1	0.15
2022 U.S. Senate	D+37.4	D+9.3	+28.0	0.2
2022 Governor	D+13.5	R+15.8	+29.2	0.1
2020 President	D+34.5	D+7.4	+27.1	0.15

Last House result (2024): party margin D+30.6 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-2.5) → lean +30.7, blended at 30%.

Past results in this district

2024 — D 4, R 0 of 4 · party margin D+30.6

D Julie D. Gilman (i)	6,126	✓
D Mark Paige (i)	6,111	✓
D Gaby Grossman (i)	6,026	✓
D Linda J. Haskins (i)	5,840	✓
R Brian Griset	3,233
R Robert Goeman	3,216
R William A. Smith	3,161

2022 — D 4, R 0 of 4 · party margin D+34.1

D Grossman (i)	5,255	✓
D Gilman (i)	5,170	✓
D Paige (i)	5,091	✓
D Haskins	5,088	✓
R Tyner	2,581
R Griset	2,563
R Smith	2,513
R Duncan	2,476