House District Rockingham 5

Forecast

Held today

1 D, 0 R, 1 vacant

On the ballot

2 Democrats, 2 Republicans for 2 seats

District party margin

R+9.2 (90% range R+20.2 to D+1.6)

Chance Democrats gain seats here

6%

Chance Democrats lose seats here

69%

Rating (seat share)

Likely R

Seat split distribution

Candidates

Candidate	Party	Win chance
John Scully	R	82%
Trevor Morse	R	81%
Mark Vallone (incumbent)	D	24%
Joe Perry	D	12%

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+2.9
+ District partisan lean	-12.1
= Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate)	R+9.2

Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 2 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.

Partisan lean (exact by town)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	R+11.7	D+2.8	-14.5	0.4
2024 Governor	R+23.3	R+9.5	-13.8	0.15
2022 U.S. Senate	R+6.5	D+9.3	-15.8	0.2
2022 Governor	R+31.2	R+15.8	-15.5	0.1
2020 President	R+6.1	D+7.4	-13.4	0.15

Last House result (2024): party margin R+8.9 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-0.0) → lean -6.3, blended at 30%.

Past results in this district

2024 — D 1, R 1 of 2 · party margin R+8.9

D Mark Vallone (i)	2,541	✓
R Michael Vose (i)	2,511	✓
R Cody M. Belanger	2,337
D Jade A. Flad-Vilardi	1,511

2022 — D 1, R 1 of 2 · party margin R+9.3

R Vose	3,790	✓
D Vallone	3,382	✓
R Belanger (i)	3,370
D Perry	2,561