House District Merrimack 25 (floterial)
Lakes Region · 1 seat · Franklin Ward 1, Franklin Ward 2, Franklin Ward 3, Northfield · floterial: these towns also elect representatives in their base districts
Forecast
0.0 expected Democratic seat of 1
- Held today
- 0 D, 1 R
- On the ballot
- 1 Democrat, 1 Republican for 1 seat
- District party margin
- R+14.9 (90% range R+25.8 to R+3.9)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 2%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Safe R
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| James Thibault (incumbent) | R | 98% |
| Erica Russell | D | 2% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -17.8 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | R+14.9 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 1 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by towns)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+17.2 | D+2.8 | -20.0 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+22.7 | R+9.5 | -13.2 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+6.8 | D+9.3 | -16.2 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+31.2 | R+15.8 | -15.4 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | R+11.9 | D+7.4 | -19.3 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin R+20.9 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-0.0) → lean -18.3, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 0, R 1 of 1 · party margin R+20.9
| R James Thibault | 4,105 | ✓ |
| D Joyce May Fulweiler | 2,686 |
2022 — D 0, R 1 of 1 · party margin R+11.1
| R Gerhard | 2,711 | ✓ |
| D Wheeler | 2,170 |