House District Grafton 9
Upper Valley · 1 seat · Canaan, Dorchester, Orange
Forecast
0.8 expected Democratic seat of 1
- Held today
- 0 D, 0 R, 1 vacant
- On the ballot
- 1 Democrat, 1 Republican for 1 seat
- District party margin
- D+7.7 (90% range R+3.3 to D+18.6)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 82%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Likely D
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Ella Barrett | D | 82% |
| Bradley Macrae | R | 18% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | +4.8 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | D+7.7 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 1 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by towns)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+6.5 | D+2.8 | +3.7 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+3.3 | R+9.5 | +6.2 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+15.7 | D+9.3 | +6.4 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+10.5 | R+15.8 | +5.2 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | D+9.0 | D+7.4 | +1.7 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin D+2.8 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-0.0) → lean +5.5, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 1, R 0 of 1 · party margin D+2.8
| D Thomas Oppel | 1,305 | ✓ |
| R Kevin M. Howard | 1,233 |
2022 — D 1, R 0 of 1 · party margin D+8.1
| D Morse | 1,030 | ✓ |
| R McFarlane | 875 |