House District Hillsborough 2
Greater Manchester · 7 seats · Bedford
Forecast
3.3 expected Democratic seats of 7
- Held today
- 2 D, 5 R
- On the ballot
- 7 Democrats, 7 Republicans for 7 seats
- District party margin
- R+0.2 (90% range R+11.1 to D+10.7)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 60%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 25%
- Rating (seat share)
- Toss-up
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kristin Noble (incumbent) | R | 65% |
| Brian Labrie (incumbent) | R | 65% |
| John Schneller (incumbent) | R | 65% |
| Catherine Rombeau (incumbent) | D | 64% |
| Matthew Castanien | R | 45% |
| Pat MacMonagle | R | 45% |
| Phil Greazzo | R | 45% |
| Peter Kujawski | R | 45% |
| Sheila Quick | D | 44% |
| John Fitzgerald | D | 44% |
| Todd Fahey | D | 44% |
| Ryan Nugent | D | 44% |
| Jeffrey Kerr | D | 43% |
| Geoffrey Wellington | D | 43% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -3.1 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | R+0.2 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 7 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+3.3 | D+2.8 | +0.5 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+17.0 | R+9.5 | -7.5 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+3.9 | D+9.3 | -5.4 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+28.0 | R+15.8 | -12.2 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | D+3.2 | D+7.4 | -4.2 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin R+4.2 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+0.4) → lean -1.2, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 2, R 5 of 7 · party margin R+4.2
| R Linda Gould (i) | 6,955 | ✓ |
| R Kristin Noble (i) | 6,929 | ✓ |
| R Ted Gorski (i) | 6,894 | ✓ |
| R Brian Labrie | 6,888 | ✓ |
| D Catherine A. Rombeau (i) | 6,602 | ✓ |
| D Loren Foxx (i) | 6,575 | ✓ |
| R John Schneller | 6,546 | ✓ |
| R Peter Kujawski | 6,495 | |
| R Danielle Evansic | 6,443 | |
| D John Fitzgerald | 6,118 | |
| D Matthew Sullivan | 6,089 | |
| D Kevin Boyarsky | 5,993 | |
| D Jeff Kerr | 5,976 | |
| D Shana Potvin | 5,968 |
2022 — D 2, R 5 of 7 · party margin R+2.6
| R Gould (i) | 5,607 | ✓ |
| R Sanborn (i) | 5,602 | ✓ |
| R Gorski (i) | 5,466 | ✓ |
| D Rombeau (i) | 5,397 | ✓ |
| R Noble | 5,320 | ✓ |
| R Hynes | 5,227 | ✓ |
| D Foxx | 5,223 | ✓ |
| R Schneller | 5,176 | |
| D LaMarche | 5,168 | |
| R Albiston | 5,107 | |
| D Fitzgerald | 5,107 | |
| D Kerr | 4,946 | |
| D Potvin | 4,909 | |
| D Schmitt | 4,818 |