House District Coos 2

North Country · 1 seat · Atkinson & Gilmanton Academy Grant, Cambridge, Clarksville, Dix's Grant, Dixville, Dummer, Errol, Milan, Millsfield, Odell, Pittsburg, Second College Grant, Stark, Wentworth's Location

Forecast

0.0 expected Democratic seat of 1

Held today: 0 D, 1 R
On the ballot: 1 Democrat, 1 Republican for 1 seat
District party margin: R+30.7 (90% range R+41.8 to R+19.8)
Chance Democrats gain seats here: 0%
Chance Democrats lose seats here: 0%
Rating (seat share): Safe R

Seat split distribution

Candidates

Candidate	Party	Win chance
Arnold Davis (incumbent)	R	100%
Lincoln Robertson	D	0%

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+2.9
+ District partisan lean	-33.7
= Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate)	R+30.8

Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.1 pts). The top 1 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.

Inputs

Partisan lean (exact by towns)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	R+32.4	D+2.8	-35.3	0.4
2024 Governor	R+39.5	R+9.5	-30.0	0.15
2022 U.S. Senate	R+22.8	D+9.3	-32.2	0.2
2022 Governor	R+53.1	R+15.8	-37.3	0.1
2020 President	R+25.3	D+7.4	-32.7	0.15

Last House result not used as a lean (uncontested or lopsided).

Past results in this district

2024 — D 0, R 1 of 1 · uncontested

R Arnold G. Davis (i)

1,734

✓

2022 — D 0, R 1 of 1 · party margin R+30.5

R Davis (i)	1,180	✓
D Doherty	628