House District Rockingham 32 (floterial)
Seacoast and Strafford · 1 seat · Brentwood, Danville, Fremont · floterial: these towns also elect representatives in their base districts
Forecast
0.0 expected Democratic seat of 1
- Held today
- 0 D, 1 R
- On the ballot
- 1 Democrat, 1 Republican, 1 other for 1 seat
- District party margin
- R+15.7 (90% range R+26.6 to R+4.8)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 2%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Safe R
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Melissa Litchfield (incumbent) | R | 98% |
| Kaley Dvorak | D | 1% |
| Kaley Dvorak | Undeclared, Democratic Party | 1% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -18.6 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | R+15.7 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 1 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by towns)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+14.3 | D+2.8 | -17.1 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+26.7 | R+9.5 | -17.1 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+11.0 | D+9.3 | -20.3 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+35.7 | R+15.8 | -19.9 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | R+11.3 | D+7.4 | -18.7 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin R+22.0 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-0.0) → lean -19.4, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 0, R 1 of 1 · party margin R+22.0
| R Melissa A. Litchfield | 5,268 | ✓ |
| D Diana West | 3,369 |
2022 — D 0, R 1 of 1 · uncontested
| R Yokela (i) | 3,473 | ✓ |
| I Kelly | 3,023 |