House District Grafton 5
North Country · 2 seats · Benton, Haverhill, Landaff, Piermont, Warren
Forecast
0.0 expected Democratic seats of 2
- Held today
- 0 D, 2 R
- On the ballot
- 1 Democrat, 2 Republicans for 2 seats
- District party margin
- R+17.7 (90% range R+28.6 to R+6.9)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 2%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Safe R
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Marie Louise Bjelobrk (incumbent) | R | 100% |
| Greg Mathieson | R | 98% |
| Dustin Vigneault | D | 2% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -20.7 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | R+17.8 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 2 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by towns)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+19.8 | D+2.8 | -22.6 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+31.5 | R+9.5 | -22.0 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+9.4 | D+9.3 | -18.8 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+37.3 | R+15.8 | -21.5 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | R+10.7 | D+7.4 | -18.1 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin R+23.8 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+1.2) → lean -19.9, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 0, R 2 of 2 · party margin R+23.8
| R Rick Ladd (i) | 2,126 | ✓ |
| R Marie L. Bjelobrk | 2,088 | ✓ |
| D Rachael E. Booth | 1,375 | |
| D Dustin Vigneault | 1,217 |
2022 — D 0, R 2 of 2 · uncontested
| R Ladd (i) | 1,903 | ✓ |
| R Coulon | 1,560 | ✓ |