House District Hillsborough 7
Nashua and the Massachusetts border · 3 seats · Nashua Ward 7
Forecast
2.8 expected Democratic seats of 3
- Held today
- 3 D, 0 R
- On the ballot
- 3 Democrats, 2 Republicans for 3 seats
- District party margin
- D+10.7 (90% range R+0.2 to D+21.6)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 0%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 20%
- Rating (seat share)
- Likely D
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Louis Juris (incumbent) | D | 96% |
| Jim Mahoney | D | 90% |
| Charlene Pedersen | D | 90% |
| Roy Parker | R | 12% |
| Avalon Lewis | R | 12% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | +7.8 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | D+10.7 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 3 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+9.1 | D+2.8 | +6.3 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+3.6 | R+9.5 | +6.0 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+18.1 | D+9.3 | +8.7 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+7.2 | R+15.8 | +8.6 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | D+18.2 | D+7.4 | +10.8 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin D+8.1 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-2.5) → lean +8.2, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 3, R 0 of 3 · party margin D+8.1
| D Alicia Gregg (i) | 2,123 | ✓ |
| D Louis C. Juris (i) | 1,833 | ✓ |
| D Catherine M. Sofikitis (i) | 1,814 | ✓ |
| R Avalon Lewis | 1,685 | |
| R Dee Hogan | 1,585 |
2022 — D 3, R 0 of 3 · party margin D+11.8
| D Gregg | 1,496 | ✓ |
| D Sofikitis (i) | 1,368 | ✓ |
| D Juris | 1,351 | ✓ |
| R Lewis | 1,119 | |
| R Hogan | 1,107 | |
| R Moriarty | 1,098 |