House District Hillsborough 11

Forecast

Held today

3 D, 0 R

On the ballot

3 Democrats, 1 Republican for 3 seats

District party margin

D+20.0 (90% range D+9.1 to D+30.9)

Chance Democrats gain seats here

0%

Chance Democrats lose seats here

1%

Rating (seat share)

Safe D

Seat split distribution

Candidates

Candidate	Party	Win chance
Manoj Chourasia (incumbent)	D	100%
William Darby (incumbent)	D	100%
Arya Shams	D	99%
Kristie Hart	R	1%

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+2.9
+ District partisan lean	+17.1
= Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate)	D+20.0

Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 3 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.

Partisan lean (exact by town)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	D+20.0	D+2.8	+17.2	0.4
2024 Governor	D+5.2	R+9.5	+14.8	0.15
2022 U.S. Senate	D+28.3	D+9.3	+18.9	0.2
2022 Governor	D+1.7	R+15.8	+17.5	0.1
2020 President	D+27.7	D+7.4	+20.4	0.15

Last House result (2024): party margin D+14.8 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-1.7) → lean +15.7, blended at 30%.

Past results in this district

2024 — D 3, R 0 of 3 · party margin D+14.8

D Laura Telerski (i)	2,586	✓
D Will Darby (i)	2,417	✓
D Manoj Chourasia	2,368	✓
R Kristie Hart	1,856
R Peter Silva	1,839
R Robert J. Sullivan	1,779

2022 — D 3, R 0 of 3 · party margin D+21.8

D Mangipudi (i)	2,011	✓
D Telerski (i)	2,009	✓
D Darby	1,926	✓
R Hart	1,334
R Silva	1,319
R Powell	1,166