House District Hillsborough 23
Greater Manchester · 2 seats · Manchester Ward 3
Forecast
2.0 expected Democratic seats of 2
- Held today
- 2 D, 0 R
- On the ballot
- 2 Democrats, 0 Republicans for 2 seats — everyone on the ballot wins
- District party margin
- D+22.0 (90% range D+22.0 to D+22.0)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 0%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Safe D
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Mary Ngwanda Georges (incumbent) | D | 100% |
| Jean Jeudy (incumbent) | D | 100% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | +19.1 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | D+22.0 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 2 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+22.2 | D+2.8 | +19.4 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | D+12.9 | R+9.5 | +22.5 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+34.3 | D+9.3 | +24.9 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | D+6.6 | R+15.8 | +22.4 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | D+31.0 | D+7.4 | +23.6 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin D+11.1 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-1.2) → lean +12.5, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 2, R 0 of 2 · party margin D+11.1
| D MaryNgwanda Georges | 1,763 | ✓ |
| D Jean Jeudy (i) | 1,699 | ✓ |
| R Tim Peters | 1,385 |
2022 — D 2, R 0 of 2 · uncontested
| D Long (i) | 1,490 | ✓ |
| D Jeudy (i) | 1,356 | ✓ |