House District Rockingham 20

Forecast

Held today

0 D, 3 R

On the ballot

1 Democrat, 3 Republicans for 3 seats

District party margin

R+14.5 (90% range R+25.4 to R+3.6)

Chance Democrats gain seats here

4%

Chance Democrats lose seats here

0%

Rating (seat share)

Safe R

Seat split distribution

Candidates

Candidate	Party	Win chance
Robert Harb (incumbent)	R	99%
James Summers (incumbent)	R	99%
Charles Melvin Sr. (incumbent)	R	99%
Rick Faulconer	D	4%

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+2.9
+ District partisan lean	-17.3
= Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate)	R+14.4

Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 3 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.

Partisan lean (exact by towns)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	R+18.3	D+2.8	-21.2	0.4
2024 Governor	R+26.5	R+9.5	-17.0	0.15
2022 U.S. Senate	R+11.7	D+9.3	-21.0	0.2
2022 Governor	R+31.3	R+15.8	-15.5	0.1
2020 President	R+10.9	D+7.4	-18.2	0.15

Last House result (2024): party margin R+17.4 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+2.5) → lean -12.3, blended at 30%.

Past results in this district

2024 — D 0, R 3 of 3 · party margin R+17.4

R Robert Harb (i)	4,297	✓
R Charles R. Melvin Sr. (i)	4,132	✓
R James Summers (i)	3,749	✓
D Elizabeth Kosta	3,050
D Nancy Bishop	2,932
D Stan G. Duncan	2,585

2022 — D 0, R 3 of 3 · party margin R+16.9

R Harb (i)	3,217	✓
R Melvin (i)	3,032	✓
R Summers	2,850	✓
D Bishop	2,322
D Bartlett	2,148
D Duncan	1,996