House District Hillsborough 30

Forecast

Held today

0 D, 3 R

On the ballot

3 Democrats, 3 Republicans for 3 seats

District party margin

R+8.3 (90% range R+19.3 to D+2.6)

Chance Democrats gain seats here

37%

Chance Democrats lose seats here

0%

Rating (seat share)

Likely R

Seat split distribution

Candidates

Candidate	Party	Win chance
Larry Baker	R	82%
Tim Morehouse	R	82%
Austin Cottle	R	82%
W. Gordon Allen	D	18%
William Bryk	D	18%
Janet McEwen	D	18%

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+2.9
+ District partisan lean	-11.2
= Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate)	R+8.3

Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 3 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.

Partisan lean (exact by towns)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	R+12.0	D+2.8	-14.8	0.4
2024 Governor	R+18.4	R+9.5	-8.9	0.15
2022 U.S. Senate	R+1.9	D+9.3	-11.2	0.2
2022 Governor	R+20.0	R+15.8	-4.3	0.1
2020 President	R+6.2	D+7.4	-13.6	0.15

Last House result (2024): party margin R+14.5 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+2.5) → lean -9.3, blended at 30%.

Past results in this district

2024 — D 0, R 3 of 3 · party margin R+14.5

R Jim Creighton (i)	3,182	✓
R Riche Colcombe (i)	3,172	✓
R Jim Fedolfi (i)	2,884	✓
D Marjorie Porter	2,528
D Michael H. Schamel	2,233
D William Bryk	2,141

2022 — D 0, R 3 of 3 · party margin R+7.5

R Creighton (i)	2,277	✓
R Colcombe	2,268	✓
R Fedolfi (i)	2,064	✓
D Koutroubas	1,944
D Manley	1,930
D Wallenstein	1,809