House District Hillsborough 21
Greater Manchester · 2 seats · Manchester Ward 1
Forecast
2.0 expected Democratic seats of 2
- Held today
- 2 D, 0 R
- On the ballot
- 2 Democrats, 1 Republican for 2 seats
- District party margin
- D+16.4 (90% range D+5.4 to D+27.4)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 0%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 3%
- Rating (seat share)
- Safe D
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Christine Seibert (incumbent) | D | 99% |
| Jeffrey Goley | D | 98% |
| Chris Morgan | R | 3% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | +13.5 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | D+16.4 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 2 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+20.4 | D+2.8 | +17.6 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | D+4.3 | R+9.5 | +13.8 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+24.2 | D+9.3 | +14.9 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+6.7 | R+15.8 | +9.0 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | D+21.5 | D+7.4 | +14.1 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin D+8.3 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-1.2) → lean +9.7, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 2, R 0 of 2 · party margin D+8.3
| D Christine Seibert (i) | 3,113 | ✓ |
| D Matthew B. Wilhelm | 2,648 | ✓ |
| R Andrew Fromuth | 2,439 |
2022 — D 1, R 1 of 2 · party margin R+13.8
| R Fromuth | 3,288 | ✓ |
| D Goley (i) | 2,527 | ✓ |
| D Seibert | 2,459 |