House District Coos 1
North Country · 2 seats · Dalton, Lancaster, Northumberland, Stratford
Forecast
0.2 expected Democratic seats of 2
- Held today
- 0 D, 2 R
- On the ballot
- 2 Democrats, 2 Republicans for 2 seats
- District party margin
- R+10.2 (90% range R+21.0 to D+0.8)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 21%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Likely R
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Amy Norris | R | 88% |
| Sam Hoehn | R | 88% |
| Jay Ennis | D | 12% |
| Lee Ann Potter | D | 12% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -13.1 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | R+10.2 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 2 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by towns)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+16.3 | D+2.8 | -19.1 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+25.2 | R+9.5 | -15.7 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+4.5 | D+9.3 | -13.8 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+35.9 | R+15.8 | -20.1 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | R+8.2 | D+7.4 | -15.6 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin R+7.5 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+1.2) → lean -3.7, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 0, R 2 of 2 · party margin R+7.5
| R Sean C. Durkin | 1,960 | ✓ |
| R James W. Tierney Jr. (i) | 1,632 | ✓ |
| D Cathleen A. Fountain | 1,544 |
2022 — D 0, R 2 of 2 · party margin R+12.0
| R Tierney | 1,446 | ✓ |
| R Merner (i) | 1,380 | ✓ |
| D Fountain | 1,110 |