House District Rockingham 16
Nashua and the Massachusetts border · 7 seats · Londonderry
Forecast
1.6 expected Democratic seats of 7
- Held today
- 0 D, 7 R
- On the ballot
- 7 Democrats, 7 Republicans for 7 seats
- District party margin
- R+5.5 (90% range R+16.4 to D+5.4)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 64%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Lean R
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| David Lundgren (incumbent) | R | 82% |
| Sherman Packard (incumbent) | R | 82% |
| Ron Dunn (incumbent) | R | 82% |
| Wayne MacDonald (incumbent) | R | 82% |
| Kristine Perez (incumbent) | R | 82% |
| Jeffrey McGraw | R | 66% |
| Gregory Carson | R | 66% |
| Michela Hites | D | 23% |
| Isaac Fernandez | D | 22% |
| Bob Cote | D | 22% |
| Neil Marceau | D | 22% |
| Paul Skudlarek | D | 22% |
| Ted Combes | D | 22% |
| Jane Cooper | D | 22% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -8.3 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | R+5.4 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 7 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+4.8 | D+2.8 | -7.7 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+21.7 | R+9.5 | -12.2 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+0.8 | D+9.3 | -10.2 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+29.6 | R+15.8 | -13.9 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | R+1.1 | D+7.4 | -8.4 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin R+10.5 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+2.5) → lean -5.4, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 0, R 7 of 7 · party margin R+10.5
| R Kristine Perez (i) | 7,962 | ✓ |
| R David Lundgren (i) | 7,917 | ✓ |
| R Tom Dolan (i) | 7,895 | ✓ |
| R Ron Dunn (i) | 7,393 | ✓ |
| R Doug Thomas (i) | 7,302 | ✓ |
| R Sherman Packard (i) | 7,260 | ✓ |
| R Wayne D. MacDonald (i) | 6,898 | ✓ |
| D Anne H. Fenn | 6,532 | |
| D Jim Green | 6,170 | |
| D Michela Hites | 6,082 | |
| D Paul Skudlarek | 5,958 | |
| D Bill Fanning | 5,945 | |
| D William Adams | 5,816 |
2022 — D 0, R 7 of 7 · uncontested
| R Lundgren (i) | 6,083 | ✓ |
| R Dolan (i) | 6,056 | ✓ |
| R Packard (i) | 5,700 | ✓ |
| R Perez | 5,699 | ✓ |
| R Thomas (i) | 5,593 | ✓ |
| R Dunn | 5,544 | ✓ |
| R MacDonald (i) | 5,436 | ✓ |