House District Merrimack 14
Concord and Merrimack Valley · 1 seat · Epsom
Forecast
0.0 expected Democratic seat of 1
- Held today
- 0 D, 1 R
- On the ballot
- 1 Democrat, 1 Republican for 1 seat
- District party margin
- R+23.0 (90% range R+34.0 to R+12.0)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 0%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Safe R
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Gary Matteson | R | 100% |
| Glenn Horner | D | 0% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -25.9 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | R+23.0 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.1 pts). The top 1 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+23.6 | D+2.8 | -26.4 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+35.9 | R+9.5 | -26.4 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+16.9 | D+9.3 | -26.2 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+39.3 | R+15.8 | -23.5 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | R+18.1 | D+7.4 | -25.5 | 0.15 |
Last House result not used as a lean (uncontested or lopsided).
Past results in this district
2024 — D 0, R 1 of 1 · uncontested
| R Dan McGuire (i) | 2,168 | ✓ |
2022 — D 0, R 1 of 1 · party margin R+20.2
| R McGuire (i) | 1,368 | ✓ |
| D Rousseau | 908 |