House District Strafford 12
Seacoast and Strafford · 4 seats · Rollinsford, Somersworth Ward 1, Somersworth Ward 2, Somersworth Ward 3, Somersworth Ward 4, Somersworth Ward 5
Forecast
3.8 expected Democratic seats of 4
- Held today
- 4 D, 0 R
- On the ballot
- 4 Democrats, 4 Republicans for 4 seats
- District party margin
- D+13.7 (90% range D+2.9 to D+24.7)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 0%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 14%
- Rating (seat share)
- Safe D
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Myles England (incumbent) | D | 97% |
| Billie Butler (incumbent) | D | 97% |
| Wayne Pearson (incumbent) | D | 97% |
| Will Hurley | D | 92% |
| Omero Ambriz | R | 5% |
| Paul Edgar | R | 4% |
| Philip Houde | R | 4% |
| David Hilton | R | 4% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | +10.8 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | D+13.7 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 4 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by towns)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+11.8 | D+2.8 | +9.0 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | D+1.9 | R+9.5 | +11.4 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+19.7 | D+9.3 | +10.4 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+5.7 | R+15.8 | +10.1 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | D+14.2 | D+7.4 | +6.8 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin D+11.4 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-0.0) → lean +14.1, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 4, R 0 of 4 · party margin D+11.4
| D Dawn M. Evans | 4,110 | ✓ |
| D Myles England | 3,992 | ✓ |
| D John J. Stone | 3,961 | ✓ |
| D Wayne Pearson | 3,905 | ✓ |
| R Ken Hilton | 3,446 | |
| R Jonathan Wilson | 3,221 | |
| R Padraic O'Hare | 3,101 | |
| R Will Milus | 2,925 |
2022 — D 3, R 1 of 4 · party margin D+27.5
| D Rich (i) | 5,955 | ✓ |
| D Vincent (i) | 3,153 | ✓ |
| D Cannon (i) | 3,043 | ✓ |
| R Hilton | 2,470 | ✓ |
| R Spencer | 2,309 | |
| R Boyle | 2,245 | |
| R McMahon | 2,190 |