House District Merrimack 27 (floterial)
Greater Manchester · 2 seats · Allenstown, Dunbarton, Epsom, Hooksett · floterial: these towns also elect representatives in their base districts
Forecast
0.2 expected Democratic seats of 2
- Held today
- 0 D, 2 R
- On the ballot
- 2 Democrats, 2 Republicans for 2 seats
- District party margin
- R+10.9 (90% range R+21.6 to D+0.1)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 15%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Likely R
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Ray Plante (incumbent) | R | 95% |
| Vanessa Poulin | R | 88% |
| Harry Kozlowski | D | 9% |
| Phillip Walker | D | 8% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -13.8 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | R+10.9 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 2 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by towns)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+10.4 | D+2.8 | -13.3 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+23.5 | R+9.5 | -14.0 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+6.0 | D+9.3 | -15.4 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+33.1 | R+15.8 | -17.3 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | R+8.2 | D+7.4 | -15.5 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin R+16.0 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+1.2) → lean -12.1, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 0, R 2 of 2 · party margin R+16.0
| R Carol McGuire (i) | 8,636 | ✓ |
| R Ray Plante | 7,908 | ✓ |
| D Kathleen Martins | 6,365 | |
| D Phillip James Walker | 5,625 |
2022 — D 0, R 2 of 2 · party margin R+12.9
| R McGuire (i) | 6,746 | ✓ |
| R Hoell | 5,574 | ✓ |
| D Frambach | 5,043 | |
| D Davis | 4,455 |