House District Merrimack 8

Forecast

Held today

3 D, 0 R

On the ballot

3 Democrats, 3 Republicans for 3 seats

District party margin

D+9.3 (90% range R+1.5 to D+20.2)

Chance Democrats gain seats here

0%

Chance Democrats lose seats here

21%

Rating (seat share)

Likely D

Seat split distribution

Candidates

Candidate	Party	Win chance
Tony Caplan (incumbent)	D	91%
Stephanie Payeur (incumbent)	D	91%
Eileen Kelly (incumbent)	D	91%
Stephen Pierce	R	9%
Matt Center	R	9%
Natalie Wells	R	9%

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+2.9
+ District partisan lean	+6.4
= Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate)	D+9.3

Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 3 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.

Partisan lean (exact by towns)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	D+7.2	D+2.8	+4.3	0.4
2024 Governor	R+3.3	R+9.5	+6.2	0.15
2022 U.S. Senate	D+17.7	D+9.3	+8.3	0.2
2022 Governor	R+4.3	R+15.8	+11.4	0.1
2020 President	D+14.1	D+7.4	+6.7	0.15

Last House result (2024): party margin D+3.5 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-0.0) → lean +6.2, blended at 30%.

Past results in this district

2024 — D 3, R 0 of 3 · party margin D+3.5

D Eileen Kelly	2,765	✓
D Tony Caplan (i)	2,700	✓
D Stephanie Payeur	2,694	✓
R Natalie Wells	2,637
R Sherry L. Gould (i)	2,572
R James Bass Parker	2,390

2022 — D 3, R 0 of 3 · party margin D+15.1

D Gould	2,448	✓
D Caplan (i)	2,366	✓
D Payeur	2,365	✓
R Kennedy (i)	1,944
R Parker	1,683
R Kirsch	1,673