House District Rockingham 35 (floterial)
Nashua and the Massachusetts border · 1 seat · Londonderry, Windham · floterial: these towns also elect representatives in their base districts
Forecast
0.1 expected Democratic seat of 1
- Held today
- 0 D, 1 R
- On the ballot
- 1 Democrat, 1 Republican for 1 seat
- District party margin
- R+7.2 (90% range R+18.1 to D+3.8)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 12%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Likely R
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Julius Soti (incumbent) | R | 88% |
| Michelle Stith | D | 12% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -10.1 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | R+7.2 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 1 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by towns)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+7.5 | D+2.8 | -10.4 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+24.7 | R+9.5 | -15.2 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+3.4 | D+9.3 | -12.8 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+33.3 | R+15.8 | -17.5 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | R+3.1 | D+7.4 | -10.5 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin R+10.1 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+2.5) → lean -5.0, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 0, R 1 of 1 · party margin R+10.1
| R Julius F. Soti (i) | 13,479 | ✓ |
| D Michelle Stith | 11,005 |
2022 — D 0, R 1 of 1 · party margin R+11.3
| R Soti (i) | 10,366 | ✓ |
| D Gehling | 8,266 |