House District Sullivan 5
Upper Valley · 1 seat · Springfield, Sunapee
Forecast
0.5 expected Democratic seat of 1
- Held today
- 0 D, 1 R
- On the ballot
- 1 Democrat, 1 Republican for 1 seat
- District party margin
- D+2.1 (90% range R+9.0 to D+12.9)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 48%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Toss-up
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| George Grant (incumbent) | R | 52% |
| Judith Thackaberry | D | 48% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -0.9 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | D+2.1 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 1 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by towns)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+4.8 | D+2.8 | +2.0 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+12.9 | R+9.5 | -3.4 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+7.2 | D+9.3 | -2.2 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+24.3 | R+15.8 | -8.5 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | D+6.9 | D+7.4 | -0.5 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin R+0.4 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-2.5) → lean -0.3, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 0, R 1 of 1 · party margin R+0.4
| R George C. Grant | 1,683 | ✓ |
| D Linda Tanner (i) | 1,669 |
2022 — D 1, R 0 of 1 · party margin D+1.1
| D Tanner (i) | 1,392 | ✓ |
| R Grant | 1,362 |