House District Merrimack 26 (floterial)
Concord and Merrimack Valley · 1 seat · Andover, Boscawen, Canterbury, Danbury, Hill, Loudon, Salisbury, Webster · floterial: these towns also elect representatives in their base districts
Forecast
0.1 expected Democratic seat of 1
- Held today
- 0 D, 1 R
- On the ballot
- 1 Democrat, 1 Republican for 1 seat
- District party margin
- R+9.9 (90% range R+20.9 to D+1.0)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 7%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Likely R
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Alvin See (incumbent) | R | 93% |
| Harold Tuttle | D | 7% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -12.9 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | R+9.9 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 1 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by towns)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+13.4 | D+2.8 | -16.3 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+22.1 | R+9.5 | -12.6 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+3.5 | D+9.3 | -12.9 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+25.3 | R+15.8 | -9.6 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | R+7.7 | D+7.4 | -15.0 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin R+14.9 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+2.5) → lean -9.8, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 0, R 1 of 1 · party margin R+14.9
| R Alvin B. See (i) | 6,959 | ✓ |
| D Mason Donovan | 5,154 |
2022 — D 0, R 1 of 1 · party margin R+6.4
| R See | 5,142 | ✓ |
| D Nesbitt | 4,526 |