House District Merrimack 7

Forecast

Held today

2 D, 0 R

On the ballot

2 Democrats, 1 Republican for 2 seats

District party margin

D+21.8 (90% range D+10.9 to D+32.7)

Chance Democrats gain seats here

0%

Chance Democrats lose seats here

0%

Rating (seat share)

Safe D

Seat split distribution

Candidates

Candidate	Party	Win chance
Gregory Sargent (incumbent)	D	100%
Karen Ebel (incumbent)	D	100%
Dorothy Hitchmoth	R	0%

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+2.9
+ District partisan lean	+18.8
= Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate)	D+21.7

Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 2 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.

Partisan lean (exact by towns)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	D+24.7	D+2.8	+21.8	0.4
2024 Governor	D+5.1	R+9.5	+14.7	0.15
2022 U.S. Senate	D+24.5	D+9.3	+15.1	0.2
2022 Governor	R+4.0	R+15.8	+11.8	0.1
2020 President	D+25.2	D+7.4	+17.8	0.15

Last House result (2024): party margin D+19.8 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-1.2) → lean +21.2, blended at 30%.

Past results in this district

2024 — D 2, R 0 of 2 · party margin D+19.8

D Karen E. Ebel (i)	2,721	✓
D Gregory M. Sargent	2,614	✓
R Dorothy L. Hitchmoth	1,966
R Claire A. Ketteler	1,603

2022 — D 1, R 1 of 2 · party margin D+11.6

D Ebel (i)	2,292	✓
R Wolf (i)	1,975	✓
D Sargent	1,901
R Ketteler	1,344