House District Hillsborough 43
Nashua and the Massachusetts border · 4 seats · Milford
Forecast
2.5 expected Democratic seats of 4
- Held today
- 2 D, 2 R
- On the ballot
- 4 Democrats, 4 Republicans for 4 seats
- District party margin
- D+3.8 (90% range R+7.1 to D+14.8)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 55%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 23%
- Rating (seat share)
- Tilt D
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Paul Dargie (incumbent) | D | 77% |
| Claire Holston | D | 59% |
| Maria Perez | D | 59% |
| Ethan Aho | D | 58% |
| Vanessa Sheehan (incumbent) | R | 46% |
| Gary Daniels (incumbent) | R | 46% |
| Elizabeth Keenan | R | 28% |
| William Bieschke | R | 28% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | +1.0 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | D+3.9 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 4 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+5.5 | D+2.8 | +2.7 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+10.9 | R+9.5 | -1.4 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+10.1 | D+9.3 | +0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+16.6 | R+15.8 | -0.8 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | D+5.9 | D+7.4 | -1.4 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin R+1.1 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-0.0) → lean +1.5, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 2, R 2 of 4 · party margin R+1.1
| D Peter Petrigno (i) | 4,480 | ✓ |
| R Vanessa L. Sheehan (i) | 4,351 | ✓ |
| R Gary L. Daniels | 4,297 | ✓ |
| D Paul Dargie | 4,236 | ✓ |
| R Michael Facques | 4,111 | |
| R Elizabeth Keenan | 4,050 | |
| D Scott Lawrence | 3,892 | |
| D Michael Varraso | 3,821 |
2022 — D 2, R 2 of 4 · party margin D+2.4
| D Petrigno (i) | 3,395 | ✓ |
| D Perez | 3,274 | ✓ |
| R Sheehan (i) | 3,151 | ✓ |
| R King (i) | 3,114 | ✓ |
| D Lawrence | 2,999 | |
| R Thornton | 2,929 | |
| D Salmon | 2,895 | |
| R Broderick | 2,783 |