House District Carroll 8 (floterial)
Lakes Region · 2 seats · Brookfield, Eaton, Effingham, Freedom, Madison, Moultonborough, Tamworth, Wakefield · floterial: these towns also elect representatives in their base districts
Forecast
0.2 expected Democratic seats of 2
- Held today
- 0 D, 2 R
- On the ballot
- 2 Democrats, 2 Republicans, 1 other for 2 seats
- District party margin
- R+12.7 (90% range R+23.8 to R+1.7)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 16%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Likely R
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Tammy Simmons Garthwaite | R | 91% |
| Colin Mitchell | R | 91% |
| Jim Pittman | D | 6% |
| George Randell | D | 6% |
| George Randell | Independent, Democratic Party | 6% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -15.6 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | R+12.7 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 2 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by towns)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+12.5 | D+2.8 | -15.4 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+24.2 | R+9.5 | -14.7 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+8.1 | D+9.3 | -17.5 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+33.3 | R+15.8 | -17.6 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | R+8.2 | D+7.4 | -15.6 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin R+17.6 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-0.0) → lean -15.0, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 0, R 2 of 2 · party margin R+17.6
| R Richard R. Brown | 7,137 | ✓ |
| R Brian R. Taylor | 6,555 | ✓ |
| D James Pittman | 4,823 | |
| D Rob Davies | 4,770 |
2022 — D 0, R 2 of 2 · party margin R+11.6
| R McConkey (i) | 6,062 | ✓ |
| R Costable | 4,785 | ✓ |
| D Knirk (i) | 4,298 | |
| D Ringelstein | 4,287 |