House District Cheshire 6

Forecast

Held today

2 D, 0 R

On the ballot

2 Democrats, 2 Republicans for 2 seats

District party margin

D+10.7 (90% range R+0.2 to D+21.6)

Chance Democrats gain seats here

0%

Chance Democrats lose seats here

12%

Rating (seat share)

Likely D

Seat split distribution

Candidates

Candidate	Party	Win chance
Cathryn A. Harvey (incumbent)	D	94%
Paul Berch (incumbent)	D	93%
Zachary Nutting	R	7%
Sean Graves	R	6%

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+2.9
+ District partisan lean	+7.8
= Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate)	D+10.7

Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 2 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.

Partisan lean (exact by towns)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	D+8.9	D+2.8	+6.1	0.4
2024 Governor	R+1.0	R+9.5	+8.5	0.15
2022 U.S. Senate	D+16.1	D+9.3	+6.8	0.2
2022 Governor	R+3.3	R+15.8	+12.5	0.1
2020 President	D+16.1	D+7.4	+8.7	0.15

Last House result (2024): party margin D+6.8 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-1.2) → lean +8.2, blended at 30%.

Past results in this district

2024 — D 2, R 0 of 2 · party margin D+6.8

D Paul Berch	2,620	✓
D Cathryn A. Harvey (i)	2,611	✓
R Sean Graves	2,500
R Robert Sutherland	2,063

2022 — D 2, R 0 of 2 · party margin D+14.2

D Abbott (i)	2,237	✓
D Harvey (i)	2,176	✓
R Merkt	1,660
R Barton	1,656