House District Hillsborough 25
Greater Manchester · 2 seats · Manchester Ward 5
Forecast
1.7 expected Democratic seats of 2
- Held today
- 1 D, 1 R
- On the ballot
- 2 Democrats, 1 Republican for 2 seats
- District party margin
- D+8.0 (90% range R+3.0 to D+18.9)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 71%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Likely D
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kathy Staub (incumbent) | D | 92% |
| Heather Deiner | D | 79% |
| Kathleen Paquette (incumbent) | R | 29% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | +5.1 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | D+8.0 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 2 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+6.8 | D+2.8 | +4.0 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | D+4.8 | R+9.5 | +14.4 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+22.3 | D+9.3 | +13.0 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+8.4 | R+15.8 | +7.4 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | D+19.7 | D+7.4 | +12.3 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin R+5.3 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-1.2) → lean -4.0, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 1, R 1 of 2 · party margin R+5.3
| R Kathleen Paquette | 1,333 | ✓ |
| D Kathy Staub (i) | 1,252 | ✓ |
| D Hyacinth J. Landry | 1,143 |
2022 — D 2, R 0 of 2 · party margin D+16.4
| D Bouldin (i) | 899 | ✓ |
| D Staub | 853 | ✓ |
| R Paquette | 676 | |
| R Mattiello | 581 |