House District Hillsborough 35
Nashua and the Massachusetts border · 2 seats · Hollis
Forecast
1.6 expected Democratic seats of 2
- Held today
- 1 D, 1 R
- On the ballot
- 2 Democrats, 2 Republicans for 2 seats
- District party margin
- D+7.2 (90% range R+3.7 to D+18.2)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 64%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 7%
- Rating (seat share)
- Lean D
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kat McGhee (incumbent) | D | 86% |
| Ben Ming | D | 72% |
| Liz Barbour (incumbent) | R | 28% |
| James Kelly | R | 14% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | +4.3 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | D+7.2 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 2 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+12.3 | D+2.8 | +9.4 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+9.0 | R+9.5 | +0.5 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+12.9 | D+9.3 | +3.5 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+14.5 | R+15.8 | +1.3 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | D+14.1 | D+7.4 | +6.7 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin R+0.2 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-1.2) → lean +1.1, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 1, R 1 of 2 · party margin R+0.2
| R Liz Barbour | 2,867 | ✓ |
| D Kat McGhee (i) | 2,856 | ✓ |
| R Sue Homola | 2,682 | |
| D Will Walker | 2,665 |
2022 — D 2, R 0 of 2 · party margin D+4.0
| D McGhee (i) | 4,720 | ✓ |
| D Ming | 4,674 | ✓ |
| R Barbour | 4,414 | |
| R Homola (i) | 4,256 |