House District Rockingham 14
Nashua and the Massachusetts border · 2 seats · East Kingston, Kingston
Forecast
0.1 expected Democratic seats of 2
- Held today
- 0 D, 2 R
- On the ballot
- 1 Democrat, 2 Republicans for 2 seats
- District party margin
- R+10.8 (90% range R+21.8 to even)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 8%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Safe R
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Ken Weyler (incumbent) | R | 96% |
| Pam Brown (incumbent) | R | 96% |
| Paul Paone | D | 8% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -13.7 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | R+10.8 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 2 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by towns)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+15.3 | D+2.8 | -18.1 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+25.5 | R+9.5 | -15.9 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+9.1 | D+9.3 | -18.5 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+30.8 | R+15.8 | -15.0 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | R+12.0 | D+7.4 | -19.4 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin R+8.3 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+1.2) → lean -4.4, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 0, R 2 of 2 · party margin R+8.3
| R Kenneth L. Weyler (i) | 2,797 | ✓ |
| R Pam Brown | 2,791 | ✓ |
| D Shaw Tilton | 2,367 |
2022 — D 0, R 2 of 2 · party margin R+16.7
| R Weyler (i) | 2,424 | ✓ |
| R Hobson (i) | 2,399 | ✓ |
| D Tidd | 1,780 | |
| D Casey | 1,664 |